Nonetheless, this is much more theoretical, and not possible since it isn’t yet a war-like circumstance.
The second solution would be to get an Iran-like scenario, where we like the US, get the entire world to impose sanctions. However, the India-China skirmish now is localized, and, therefore, cannot be taken to this degree. Anyway, India doesn’t have such influence over the rest of the planet.
We’ll need to compete with all the WTO, but the organization doesn’t have the clout to behave. China may do the same for our exports, but provided that we bought approximately $65 bn and exported about $16-17 bn every year in FY20, this might not matter in net terms. Such a choice would need to be obtained at the governmental level and, at present, doesn’t seem to be under consideration.
Fourth is Indian importers boycotting Chinese products. Of the 65bn or so we import, approximately $21bn are electronic equipment, $20bn engineering products, and $12bn substances. The main reason for importing from China is quality and price. These could be sourced from everywhere, however, the price variable may militate against such a choice.
This is most likely a theoretical response for a product that could be produced using different distribution chains and networks. Besides, to get a customer, quality, and cost concerns trump everything else.
The nationalistic tone determined by Make in India along with the Atmanirbhar effort is very suitable for such actions. The question is if we’re ready to do this. There have been constant moves against the usage of plastics, in which a few segments have moved off. There are attempts against utilizing environment-unfriendly goods, that haven’t quite picked up. The warfare against colas hasn’t yet been discovered. In this kind of circumstance, a class action in the masses is improbable. It needs to be done in the amount of company, in which one is ready to import from different nations and likely pay a greater price. There are some actions on this by dispatch agents that have refused to pick up Chinese products from the vents. However, such answers have become more macro to work. It causes a classical approach from the domain of game theory’ where nobody knows what another will do and, thus, boycotting Chinese products may end up with others moving ahead and raising market share in earnings of, say, cellular phones. Because of this, it’s a challenge to have plans here.
In this time of globalization, Chinese products could be routed through some other jurisdictions such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, etc, which can be difficult to track. Chinese producers are everywhere, along with the import tag that may state Europe, using a Chinese firm being producer. Boycotting Chinese products might not be viable.
From the moderate – to long term, taking such actions against any nation might not be wise as skirmishes on the boundary don’t last forever. Reviving relations later breaking them is much harder. That is why globally such activities don’t occur too frequently, and the event of Iran is very singular. Thus, enabling emotions control policy activity isn’t typically the answer of these authorities, and diplomatic channels get involved. It can be presumed that the call for a ban on Chinese products is much more a general public outcry than a step the government might be thinking about, as we’re nowhere near the tipping point.
Assuming this intense, how important is it for China? In 2019, from $2.5 trillion (worldstopexports.com) international commerce, India was at approximately $75 bn. India’s share is only 3%.
While at the macro level, the effect might not be that sharp, it might impact product sections such as notebooks, cellular phones, medications and pharma, TVs, plastics, and dairy machines, etc..
Nevertheless, routing through tax havens such as Mauritius and Singapore can’t be ruled out that are a share of 50 percent in total.
In conclusion, while psychological rhetoric has gained at the decibel level, practically speaking, provided that diplomatic connections are available between India and China, requiring rigorous action isn’t feasible. Those in favor of a ban claim that we’re less dependent on China for imports. While it might be tempting to conclude that there’s a silent withdrawal happening, general imports have dropped. The jury remains out on this.